{"id":10359,"date":"2026-08-31T06:05:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-30T21:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/?p=10359"},"modified":"2026-08-31T11:56:21","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T02:56:21","slug":"rising-trade-values-mask-the-true-cost-of-global-supply-chain-disruptions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/news\/rising-trade-values-mask-the-true-cost-of-global-supply-chain-disruptions\/","title":{"rendered":"Rising Trade Values Mask the True Cost of Global Supply Chain Disruptions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Maximilian Malawista<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

UNITED NATIONS(IPS)\u00a0<\/strong>– Global goods trade reached\u00a0approximately<\/a>\u00a0USD 13.7 trillion in the first half of 2026, up 12.5 percent from the same period in 2025, while services grew 10.5 percent, together adding USD 2 trillion to global trade. While these figures point to continued expansion, much of the increase reflects rising prices rather than stronger trade volumes.\uff5cJAPANESE<\/a>\uff5c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to UNCTAD\u2019s Division on International Trade and Commodities, disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have strained energy supplies, increased fuel costs, disrupted maritime logistics, and raised production costs across a wide range of industries. Prices for traded goods rose 3.6 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, accelerating to 5.1 percent in the second quarter. Although merchandise trade continues to expand, UNCTAD\u2019s nowcast<\/a>, its data and model-driven predictions of global trade over period growth, estimates that trade by value will grow by 4.2 percent in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the same period last year, suggesting that higher prices continue to account for a significant share of trade growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This inflation is driven by a roughly 160-day disruption<\/a> of the Strait of Hormuz, where<\/a> 25 percent of the seaborne oil trade, 20 percent of global liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), about<\/a> one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade, and significant petrochemical supply chains have been almost completely shut off from maritime trade flows. According<\/a> to the Strait of Hormuz Tracker, roughly 7 ships have transited on August 7, 11.7 percent of traffic compared to normal pre-crisis levels: limiting daily throughput to 1.2 million compared to pre-levels of 10.3 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Freightos<\/a>, the cost of a 40-foot equivalent unit (FEU) on a China\/East Asia to North America East Coast voyage was roughly USD 9,100 in July, up from USD 4,300 in May. Similarly, on a China\/East Asia to North America West Coast voyage it cost USD 7,550 in July, up from USD 2,828 in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This drastic price volatility for a FEU reflects the consequences of heightened fuel costs. Both the passages mentioned do not go near the Strait of Hormuz, both thousands of miles away. Yet, the effects of a disruption to the Strait cascade across global shipping. Logistics is the backbone behind every industry, with shipping a FEU becoming more expensive by more than double in multiple passages, the price of the items within those FEU also must rise in price to cover the costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The effects are particularly evident in East Asia, the world\u2019s manufacturing hub and the center of the global semiconductor and artificial intelligence (AI) supply chain, where demand for AI infrastructure, digital technologies, and electric mobility continues to accelerate. According to UNCTAD, trade<\/a> in critical minerals increased 38 percent during the first quarter of 2026 compared with a year earlier, and semiconductor trade rose 25 percent, batteries 15 percent, information and communication technology (ICT) products 14 percent, and electric vehicles 11 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet despite being geographically distant from the Strait of Hormuz, semiconductor fabrication facilities in Taiwan and South Korea remain heavily dependent on reliable global shipping networks, affordable energy, and petrochemical inputs. As higher fuel prices increase the cost of transporting components between suppliers and manufacturers, and rising electricity, natural gas, and petrochemical prices raise production costs, the value of these high-tech exports continues to climb\u2014even when the volume of goods traded grows far more slowly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Strait of Hormuz disruption demonstrates the interconnectedness of the global maritime system. A constriction in this strategic maritime chokepoint raises oil and LNG prices, increasing transportation and industrial energy costs, heightening manufacturing expenses, and ultimately raising the price of internationally traded goods. Consequently, manufacturers in East Asia, importers in North America, and consumers around the world all experience the effects of a disruption occurring thousands of miles away. As these costs accumulate across increasingly interconnected supply chains, the nominal value of global trade rises, even when underlying trade volumes and real economic output grow much more slowly, illustrating that higher trade values do not necessarily represent stronger economic performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

INPS Japan\/IPS UN Bureau Report<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Maximilian Malawista UNITED NATIONS(IPS)\u00a0– Global goods trade reached\u00a0approximately\u00a0USD 13.7 trillion in the first half of 2026, up 12.5 percent from the same period in 2025, while services grew 10.5 percent, together adding USD 2 trillion to global trade. While these figures point to continued expansion, much of the increase reflects rising prices rather than stronger […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10362,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28,40,16,32],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10359","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy-finance-trade","category-global-regions","category-news","category-regions"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10359","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10359"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10359\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10363,"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10359\/revisions\/10363"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10362"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10359"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10359"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10359"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}