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The Aug. 23 election marked the first test of Kazakhstan\u2019s new constitutional architecture, moving changes adopted earlier this year from legal design into political practice, said KazISS Director Zhandos Shaimardanov. He pointed to turnout of more than 74% and the preliminary indication of five parties above the 5% threshold as two features likely to shape the new legislature: a dominant political force alongside several smaller parties represented in the Kurultai. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe task now is to understand how this electoral choice will translate into the work of the new Kurultai, its legislative priorities and the parties\u2019 day-to-day activities,\u201d he added.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Election is only the beginning\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n
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Domenico Palmieri, director of the Italian Institute for Asia, said the election is just the beginning of a long path because the election itself cannot tell whether institutional reform has worked as that will be determined based on Kurultai\u2019s performance.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cYesterday was a very important day for Kazakhstan, but it\u2019s only the start of a new path. All these changes, all these reforms must be implemented and followed in the coming months and years,\u201d said Palmieri, who has followed Kazakhstan\u2019s presidential election in 2022, the constitutional referendum in March and the parliamentary vote on Aug. 23.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
He described the transition to a unicameral parliament as a potentially more efficient model but said its effectiveness could only be assessed once the newly elected lawmakers begin legislating. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI think we must wait six months just to see how the new parliament and new deputies will do their job,\u201d he added.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
From a technical perspective, the election proceeded smoothly, he said. What particularly stood out to Palmieri and what differs from the situation in Italy was the willingness of Kazakh citizens to vote and express their views on the country\u2019s development. Citing nearly 75% of eligible voters casting ballots in Kazakhstan, the expert said in Italy, turnout of 50% would be considered a success. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Parties have to meet voters\u2019 demands <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Andrey Kazantsev, doctor of political sciences and a professor at the Almaty-based Narxoz University, placed Kazakhstan\u2019s turnout in a broader context of declining political engagement in many countries, which he linked partly to growing individualization and weaker public interest in conventional politics. <\/p>\n\n\n
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However, he said the high turnout should not necessarily be interpreted as evidence that voters have become more interested in party politics itself. Instead, he noted, it may reflect a broader concern about the country\u2019s direction at a time of growing international uncertainty. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThis is an indicator of a strong interest of the society, probably not in politics as much. I am not sure that if you talk with ordinary people, they are specifically interested in party politics. But what they are interested in is the future: what will happen to them, what will happen to their children and they see every day on TV information about what is going on in the world,\u201d he said.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
This could become increasingly important under Kazakhstan\u2019s redesigned political system. As Kurultai deputies are now elected through party lists rather than territorial constituencies, Kazantsev said political parties will assume greater responsibility for translating public expectations into legislative priorities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe demand is high. Now the parties have to provide the supply side,\u201d said the expert, noting that it will require parties to modernize the way they operate, understand voters\u2019 concerns more closely and offer a clearer vision of the country\u2019s future, he said. Whether they manage to do so could become an early indicator of whether the new constitutional model is functioning as intended. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Implications beyond Kazakhstan <\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to Ken Moriyasu, a senior fellow at the Washington D.C.-based Hudson Institute, the implications of Kazakhstan\u2019s political transition extend beyond its domestic institutions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Addressing the meeting, he pointed to growing international attention to Central Asia\u2019s resources, trade routes and geopolitical position. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
He said interest in the region has risen sharply in Washington D.C. as the United States seeks to reduce its reliance on China for critical minerals, while Beijing looks increasingly to overland Eurasian routes that are less vulnerable to disruptions along maritime trade corridors. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cBoth China and the U.S. are trying to escape each other, and they\u2019re meeting each other in Central Asia. That\u2019s why there is so much interest,\u201d he added. <\/pre>\n\n\n\nIn this context, Moriyasu described Kazakhstan\u2019s political transition as part of a broader consolidation underway across Central Asia, where states have increasingly sought greater regional coordination and a stronger collective role internationally. The expert cited the Kyrgyz Republic\u2019s election to the United Nations Security Council in June as one sign of that trend, stressing that greater regional backing helped Bishkek secure the seat. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI think there is gradual integration in the region. I think it started in 2016 when Uzbekistan had a new president [Shavkat Mirziyoyev], and I think this consolidation of power and stability in Kazakhstan is a part of this big process,\u201d he added.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to him, greater clarity in Kazakhstan\u2019s domestic political system could also strengthen the country\u2019s ability to navigate intensifying competition among larger powers and continue implementing its balanced foreign policy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
What comes next <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The institutional transition is already moving into its next phase. On Aug. 24, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev reappointed the heads of the National Bank, National Security Committee and Supreme Judicial Council, as well as the Commissioner for Human Rights, as Kazakhstan begins implementing changes under the new constitutional framework. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to the country\u2019s Constitution, once the election results are formally announced by the Central Election Commission, President Tokayev is expected to convene the first session of the Kurultai, which by law must take place within 30 days of the publication of the final results. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The sitting government will then be required to resign after the new Parliament begins its work. Under the new Constitution, the President will nominate a candidate for prime minister after consultations with the factions of political parties represented in the Kurultai. Once appointed, the prime minister will have 10 days to propose the structure and composition of the government, while cabinet members will be appointed by the President following consultations with the Kurultai. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Constitution also envisages the office of vice president. Tokayev said the decision will be announced soon. The President must appoint the vice president with the approval of the Kurultai within two months of the opening of the new legislature\u2019s first session. The vice president may not serve as a lawmaker or belong to a political party, and would assume presidential powers if the head of state leaves office before the end of the presidential term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n