By Thalif Deen<\/p>\n\n\n\n
UNITED NATIONS (IDN) \u2014 The Tenth Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which runs from August 1-26, takes place amidst a raging battle: a nuclear Russia vs a non-nuclear Ukraine and potential military conflicts on the horizon, including a nuclear China vs a non-nuclear Taiwan, a nuclear North Korea vs a non-nuclear South Korea and a nuclear Israel vs a non-nuclear Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And in equally serious development, US non-proliferation experts have written to US President Joe Biden, echoing concerns expressed by both China and Indonesia, about a proposed plan by US and UK, two major nuclear powers, to sell Australia atomic submarines under the 2021 AUKUS partnership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tariq Rauf, former Alternate Head of NPT Delegation, and Head of Verification and Security Policy at the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA<\/a>), told IDN the Tenth NPT Review Conference<\/a> is \u201ctaking place in the worst international situation in the 54-year history of the NPT\u201d, as he recounted the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n ** A proxy war in full form over Ukraine<\/p>\n\n\n\n ** A complete cut-off of nuclear arms control negotiations between Washington and Moscow,<\/p>\n\n\n\n ** Nuclear-weapon use doctrines of Russia and the US increasing the dangers of nuclear war,<\/p>\n\n\n\n ** A continuing stalemate on setting up a zone free of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction in the region of the Middle East<\/p>\n\n\n\n ** The after-effects of Trump\u2019s rejection in Hanoi of North Korea\u2019s offer to dismantle its Ny\u014fngby\u014fn nuclear facility, rising tensions between Washington and Beijing<\/p>\n\n\n\n ** The CTBT<\/a> (nuclear-test-ban treaty) has been languishing since September 1996, NATO extending its defence perimeter to the Asia-Pacific, and<\/p>\n\n\n\n ** The only nuclear arms control treaty\u2014New START<\/a>\u2014hanging by a thread between Russia and the US with an expiry date of February 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cAll these and other deleterious developments are casting a heavy shadow over the NPT review conference,\u201d he cautioned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cHaving attended all NPT meetings as an official delegate since 1987, I am sympathetic to the NPT President Gustavo Zlauvinen\u2019s plight in trying to herd the delegates to rise above their petty discourses, and unrealistic world views to find the \u201cbetter angels of their nature\u201d to hammer out an action plan for the implementation of NPT obligations and agreed commitments by August 26\u2014the last day of the review conference,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In a statement ahead of the conference, US President Joe Biden said: \u201cAs the world gathers for the Tenth Review Conference for the NPT Treaty, the United States renews its commitment to the world to be a responsible steward of its nuclear arsenal and to continue working toward the ultimate goal of a world without nuclear weapons\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThat commitment is why the United States joined together with the other Nuclear Weapons States in January to affirmatively state our shared belief that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought, and it is why my administration has prioritised reducing the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In this moment of uncertainty and upheaval on the global stage, Biden said, \u201creaffirming our shared commitment to the grounding principles of the global nonproliferation regime has never been more crucial\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe world can be confident that my Administration will continue to support the NPT and seek to strengthen the nonproliferation architecture that protects people everywhere,\u201d he declared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ned Price, the US State Department Spokesperson, told reporters on July 25 that the United States stands by the NPT. \u201cWe think it is extraordinarily important to underline the obligations that the NPT puts forward for nuclear weapon states and for non-nuclear weapon states alike.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIn the face of challenges to the global nonproliferation regime, we think it\u2019s important that the United States stands with the signatories of the NPT to make clear that even though it has been in effect for some time now, its relevance, its importance, has not diminished a single iota over the years and the decades,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In a statement released July 27, a spokesman for the Nuclear Proliferation Prevention Project (NPPP) said U.S. experts urged<\/a> President Biden not to proceed with the planned sale of eight submarines fueled by tons of nuclear weapons-grade, highly enriched uranium (HEU), arguing it would \u201cundermine the nuclear nonproliferation regime\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The experts said any such submarines should instead be fueled with low-enriched uranium (LEU), which is unsuitable for nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Indonesia similarly submitted to the UN conference a working paper<\/a> that \u201cnotes with concern the potential consequences of nuclear-powered submarine capability sharing to the global non-proliferation regime,\u201d highlighting that it, \u201cincreases the associated risks \u2026 posed by potential proliferation and conversion of nuclear material to nuclear weapons, particularly HEU in the operational status of nuclear naval propulsion\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In China last week, a government-affiliated report<\/a> likewise warned that \u201cThe AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines collaboration is a serious violation of the object and purpose of the NPT, sets a dangerous precedent for the illegal transfer of weapons-grade nuclear materials from nuclear-weapon states to a non-nuclear-weapon state, and thus constitutes a blatant act of nuclear proliferation\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The confluence of criticism is unusual and reflects the radical nature of the AUKUS plan, according to Alan J. Kuperman, professor at the University of Texas at Austin and coordinator of the Nuclear Proliferation Prevention Project (www.NPPP.org<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cFor half a century, the world has phased out bomb-grade uranium fuel to reduce proliferation risks,\u201d he said, \u201cbut now the United States would export massive quantities of it as submarine fuel, creating a precedent for other countries to demand the same right to import or produce their own HEU\u2014which would be game-over for nonproliferation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rauf said the 15 September 2021 \u201cAUKUS\u201d agreement\u2019s provision that the US would provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines is one of the more irresponsible decisions of the hapless Biden administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite the AUKUS partners\u2014Australia, UK and US\u2014stated commitment to set a \u201cgold standard\u201d as regards IAEA safeguards (verification), in reality, the only \u201cgold standard\u201d that can be set is that of blowing a gaping hole through the IAEA\u2019s NPT verification system by exempting up to 2000 kilogrammes of weapon-grade highly-enriched uranium from IAEA safeguards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n