{"id":8949,"date":"2025-06-27T06:14:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-26T21:14:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/?p=8949"},"modified":"2025-06-27T18:53:11","modified_gmt":"2025-06-27T09:53:11","slug":"analysis-theocrats-securocrats-and-the-dangerous-logic-of-the-iran-israel-escalation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/news\/analysis-theocrats-securocrats-and-the-dangerous-logic-of-the-iran-israel-escalation\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysis: Theocrats, Securocrats, and the Dangerous Logic of the Iran\u2013Israel Escalation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Ahmed Fathi<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

New York <\/em><\/strong>(ATN) \u2013 The latest exchange of fire between Israel and Iran has once again dragged the Middle East to the precipice of regional war.\u00a0Headlines have mostly featured air raid sirens, missile strikes, and retaliatory drone swarms. But the true narrative\u2014the one too often overlooked in the immediacy of conflict\u2014is not about military strategies or diplomatic errors. It is about two states with systems of governance designed for escalation.<\/h3>\n\n\n
\n
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Ahmed Fathi<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

This is not a war of misunderstanding or miscalculation. It is a war manufactured\u2014politically, ideologically, and structurally\u2014by two regimes ruled not by moderates or diplomats, but by two powerful blocs: Theocrats and Securocrats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran\u2019s Twin Power Centers: God and the Gun<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Iran, power is split\u2014but not balanced\u2014between divine authority and military dominance. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei supplies the religious mandate, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) enforces it with operational muscle and economic control. The IRGC is no ordinary military institution\u2014it is an empire within a state, with stakes in everything from oil exports to tech surveillance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran’s military response goes beyond simple reprisal. It is underlining a system of government that justifies internal persecution by means of outside threats. The IRGC lives on crises: war justifies crackdowns; sanctions justify self-reliance; isolation justifies ideological purity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Theocrats fuel this machine by framing every confrontation with Israel or the West as divine resistance. And as long as these narratives hold, any internal dissent can be conveniently labeled treasonous or heretical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Israel\u2019s Far-Right Securocrats<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Israel is undergoing its own institutional drift. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019s current coalition includes ultra-nationalists and religious hardliners who see confrontation with Iran not just as policy, but as destiny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Israeli securocrats\u2014Mossad, the IDF, and elite cyber units\u2014have long shaped military strategy, but today they increasingly drive foreign policy itself. Their playbook is simple: deterrence through dominance. Preemptive strikes are not warnings\u2014they\u2019re declarations of permanence in a volatile neighborhood.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But this isn\u2019t just about military tactics. For Netanyahu\u2019s political survival, Iran serves as a unifying external threat to distract from domestic divisions, legal troubles, and democratic backsliding. Escalation is not a bug in the system\u2014it\u2019s a feature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Structural Escalation, Not Strategic Miscalculation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What we\u2019re witnessing is not a classic security dilemma. It\u2019s a governance dilemma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In both Tehran and Jerusalem, conflict sustains legitimacy. Theocrats invoke existential threats to suppress dissent and consolidate authority. Securocrats push for militarization, claiming it is the only rational response to an irrational enemy. In both cases, war\u2014or the threat of it\u2014becomes a tool of statecraft, not its failure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Each side benefits from keeping the other on high alert. This isn\u2019t accidental\u2014it\u2019s structural. Neither system rewards de-escalation. On the contrary, calm is dangerous. It raises questions. It invites reform. It threatens the power equilibrium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Washington Must Rethink Its Entire Playbook<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For decades, U.S. policy toward Iran and Israel has relied on a mechanical formula: sanction Iran, arm Israel, contain the fallout. But that formula has expired. It was never designed to address the internal mechanics of power that feed perpetual conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. and its European allies need to stop treating missiles and centrifuges as the disease. They are the symptoms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A serious long-term strategy must:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 Target the political economy of conflict: pressure institutions that profit from militarism, not just those that launch it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 Invest in civil society: empower voices that challenge siege narratives, from Iranian women\u2019s rights activists to Israeli human rights defenders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 Reframe diplomacy: focus not just on deals, but on the domestic structures that make peace politically unviable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion: The Logic of War Must Be Broken<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Until international actors pivot from containment to structural engagement, the cycle will repeat\u2014and worsen. Today’s missile exchanges are not anomalies. They are the logical result of regimes designed to thrive under threat, not resolve it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To break the pattern, it is not enough to call for restraint. The very logic of escalation must be delegitimized. Theocrats and securocrats will not choose peace unless the cost of war becomes greater than the power they derive from it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That means policymakers must stop asking: How do we stop the next strike? and start asking: Who benefits from this endless state of siege\u2014and how do we make it stop serving them? systems designed to survive\u2014not through peace, but through perpetual crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

INPS Japan\/ American Television Network<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Original URL: https:\/\/www.amerinews.tv\/posts\/theocrats-securocrats-iran-israel-escalation<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Ahmed Fathi New York (ATN) \u2013 The latest exchange of fire between Israel and Iran has once again dragged the Middle East to the precipice of regional war.\u00a0Headlines have mostly featured air raid sirens, missile strikes, and retaliatory drone swarms. But the true narrative\u2014the one too often overlooked in the immediacy of conflict\u2014is not […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8950,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[38,16,39,32,29],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-8949","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-middle-east","8":"category-news","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-regions","11":"category-viewpoints"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8949","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8949"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8949\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8955,"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8949\/revisions\/8955"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8950"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inpsjapan.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}