By Dr Majid Khan
Melbourne (London Post) – In a landmark development, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have entered into a “Strategic Mutual Defence” pact, signaling to both the United States and Israel that the Kingdom is prepared to diversify its security alliances to strengthen its regional deterrence capabilities. This agreement, which comes at a time of shifting geopolitical dynamics, marks a notable departure from Saudi Arabia’s long-standing reliance on the U.S. for security guarantees.
The pact, signed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Riyadh, comes just a week after Israeli missile strikes targeted Hamas political leaders in Qatar, a move that deeply unsettled Gulf states traditionally dependent on the U.S. for their defense needs.
The Gulf states have long held concerns about Washington’s unpredictability and its willingness to ensure their security, especially as Israel’s military actions in the region continue to raise alarm. As one senior Saudi official explained, the mutual defense agreement will act as a key element of deterrence, stating, “Aggression against one is aggression against the other.” The agreement outlines the use of all necessary defensive and military means, depending on the specific nature of the threat.
The agreement also underscores the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. As the U.S.’s traditional role as the region’s security guarantor is questioned, especially after the attack on Doha, Saudi Arabia appears to be recalibrating its alliances. The Israeli airstrike on Doha has exposed a growing vulnerability in the Gulf, as the U.S.’s response to the strike was perceived as muted. Prince Mohammed, condemning the Israeli attack as “brutal aggression,” emphasized the need for a collective Arab, Islamic, and international response.
Asfandyar Mir, a senior fellow at the Washington DC-based Stimson Center, described this pact as a “watershed moment” for both nations. He pointed out that while Pakistan had entered into mutual defense agreements with the United States during the Cold War, those alliances eroded by the 1970s. Even with China, Pakistan lacks a formal defense treaty. The agreement with Saudi Arabia, therefore, represents a significant shift in the regional security architecture.
Mir also highlighted the complexity this development introduces into the already tense India-Pakistan dynamics, noting that the timing of the agreement coincides with rising fears of Indian military aggression against Pakistan.
Muhammad Faisal, a South Asia security researcher at the University of Technology Sydney, remarked that the agreement could serve as a model for Pakistan to secure similar defense cooperation with other Gulf nations such as the UAE and Qatar. This, he argued, would further strengthen Pakistan’s strategic position in the region.
The pact also holds political significance for both nations. Saudi Arabia, by formalizing this relationship with Pakistan, signals that it still values its long-standing ties with Islamabad, even as India works to push countries to distance themselves from Pakistan.
Mir emphasized this point, noting that while Pakistan has been subject to diplomatic isolation, especially at the hands of India, this agreement demonstrates that Pakistan is not entirely marginalized in its region.
One of the major implications of this agreement is the alignment it creates between Saudi Arabia’s immense financial resources and Pakistan’s nuclear-armed military capabilities. However, the details surrounding the pact remain vague, and both countries have emphasized that the agreement does not involve any transfer of nuclear technology or capabilities.
Khawaja Muhammad Asif, Pakistan’s Defence Minister, clarified that nuclear weapons are “not on the radar” of the pact. He also noted that the agreement could potentially be extended to other Gulf countries, broadening the scope of regional security cooperation.
From a strategic perspective, the agreement could shift the regional balance of power. Saudi Arabia, which has long relied on the U.S. for security, is now looking to Pakistan, a country that maintains strong ties with both China and Russia, as an alternative source of defense. The partnership, though not a substitute for the U.S.’s military presence, sends a clear message to the U.S. and Israel that Saudi Arabia is seeking to reduce its dependence on the West and explore other strategic alliances.
This move comes at a time when the Middle East’s security landscape is being reshaped. Israel’s aggressive military actions, coupled with the declining influence of the U.S. in the region, have prompted Gulf leaders to reevaluate their security arrangements. The Saudi-Pakistan defense pact represents a strategic pivot that reflects Saudi Arabia’s desire to hedge against regional uncertainty, especially in light of the increasing unpredictability of U.S. policies.
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi political commentator with close ties to the royal court, suggested that while the Saudi-Pakistan pact would not replace the U.S.’s military role in the region, it is a symbolic shift that signals Saudi Arabia’s growing willingness to look beyond traditional alliances. The pact, according to Shihabi, also reinforces Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Pakistan, which has a strong military presence in the region and is seen as an important partner in maintaining regional security.
For Pakistan, the pact is both an opportunity and a risk. While it strengthens Pakistan’s position in the Gulf and enhances its regional deterrence capabilities, it also introduces potential tensions with the United States, especially considering the Trump administration’s warm relations with Islamabad. Pakistan’s increased defense ties with Saudi Arabia could complicate its relationship with Washington, particularly as the U.S. works to integrate Israel into a broader Middle East security framework to contain Iran. Rabia Akhtar, director of the Center for Security, Strategy, and Policy Research at the University of Lahore, pointed out that for Saudi Arabia, the agreement solidifies conventional security guarantees, offers access to Pakistani defense expertise, and symbolizes the alignment of two Muslim-majority, nuclear-armed countries. However, for Pakistan, which is more focused on its rivalry with India than on Middle Eastern security concerns, the pact may come with unforeseen risks, particularly in terms of its relations with the U.S.
India is closely examining the implications of this agreement for its own security, especially as it seeks to maintain its influence in the Gulf. The Indian government has stated that it will study the defense pact’s potential impact on its national security and foreign policy. Although Saudi Arabia’s close relationship with India is expected to endure, as Shihabi suggested, this development will likely prompt a recalibration of India’s approach to the region. India will need to balance its growing ties with Saudi Arabia against its long-standing geopolitical rivalry with Pakistan.
While it may not immediately alter the security dynamics in the region, it signals a shift towards more diversified security alliances and reflects the broader tectonic changes occurring in the Middle East.
Both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are positioning themselves for a more complex and unpredictable regional future, and this agreement is just one example of how states in the region are recalibrating their alliances in response to global and regional shifts.
INPS Japan/London Post